Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
